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Abkhazian Crisis
The existence of a comprehensive crisis in Abkhazia is an undeniable reality, and addressing the accumulated problems in the country will be the leitmotif of the ongoing presidential race. Regardless of whom the people elect, the newly appointed president will undoubtedly be unable to govern in the old ways, being forced to embark on reforms simultaneously in all areas – governance, law enforcement, economy, and the social sphere.
Another aspect requiring a reset is relations with Abkhazia’s main ally, Russia. These challenges were discussed by the editor of the newspaper Chegemskaya Pravda, Inal Khashig, with historian and political scientist Astamur Tania.
Full text of interview:
Inal Khashig:
We are on the eve of the New Year, yet the mood in the country is far from festive. The country continues to be mired in a prolonged crisis that reminds us of itself almost daily. This includes the energy crisis and the recent tragedy in parliament, which led to the death of deputy Vakhtang Golandzia. The situation is further aggravated by the complete helplessness of the executive branch. We are concluding 2024 in this state and anticipating the presidential election in Abkhazia, where a new head of state will be elected to tackle the accumulated chronic problems.
Let’s discuss the current situation with our regular expert, Astamur Tania. Of course, what happened in parliament and the subsequent reaction did not come as a surprise to me personally. It seems that our political system and elite have been heading toward this for quite some time. I’d like to hear your thoughts on this, your impressions of what is happening.
“Today we need a force capable of demonstrating the rule of law, regardless of family ties and personal interests.”
Astamur Tania:
Despite the tragic nature of what happened, you’re right — we have been moving toward such a situation for years. Society is structured in such a way that people tend to copy the most actions, those that bring the greatest benefit. If following the law is beneficial and the authorities demonstrate commitment to these principles, then society will follow suit.
However, there are historical turning points when power weakens, and openly antisocial or even criminal behavior becomes successful. If such models are not suppressed in time, they start to replicate within society, and state principles are replaced by the rule of the strong.
Over the past decades, so-called “informal leaders” and representatives of the authorities in our country have often found themselves above the law, which has undermined trust in the legal system. This signal has been transmitted to the entire society. Today we need a force capable of demonstrating the rule of law, regardless of family ties and personal interests.
Without this, we risk finding ourselves in a situation where various clans, including semi-criminal and legalized ones within the government, will control specific sectors of the economy and territories, periodically engaging in conflicts. If we fail to address this issue on our own, it could lead to the loss of our statehood.
Inal Khashig:
Listening to you, I caught myself thinking that you are talking about a possible scenario in which we might be unable to cope on our own.
“A state that cannot ensure internal order cannot be a reliable partner.”
Astamur Tania:
God forbid this happen. For now, people want law and order to be established in the country. It has long been known here that power is not sacred; it does not reside somewhere high up on Olympus but walks among us on the ground. That’s why personal example is very important. If those who come to power now demonstrate through their actions that they are here not for personal enrichment but to serve society, it will make a difference. If you enter politics for personal gain, you will inevitably have to rely on criminal schemes in various spheres.
Personal example and a state approach based on justice and impartiality toward private interests will quickly resonate with society. It is crucial to convey this message to our people. I am surprised that even a month after the recent events—another political crisis—there has been complete informational silence in the country. I believe those aspiring to power should be communicating their ideas. More serious and radical measures are now needed to heal the situation.
We need to speak honestly about where we are heading. Those who seek power must realize that achieving results will require personal sacrifices. Everyone wants to be seen as “good,” but in this situation, that is impossible. The situation is very serious, especially at the domestic level, and this inevitably affects relations with Russia. A state that cannot ensure internal order cannot be a reliable partner.
The Russian authorities look at our institutions—presidency, parliament—and project their own model onto us. They assume that we have structures responsible for governance. But in reality, power is absent; it is gradually eroding and slipping away from official institutions. Then everything becomes mixed — media, the streets, and official bodies. And this is a major problem.
Inal Khashig:
We have been heading in this direction for a long time. If we look back at the history of our presidential elections, we can observe a clear trend: the process has become almost formulaic. First, to seriously compete for the presidency, you need significant financial resources. Second, you need enforcers — people who will keep everyone on edge and demonstrate how strong and influential you are.
You need people who know how to work the streets, who will bring elderly voters out to ensure they vote “the right way.” And ultimately, once you are elected president, no matter what you promised during the campaign, you find yourself alone. All those people from your campaign team, each with their own interests, start coming to you with demands the very next day after the inauguration. If you’ve noticed, every one of our presidents tries to implement reforms in their first year or two, but after that, everything starts to decline.
In recent years, the president has been clinging to power with all his might. His entourage simply maintains the existing criminal system, which has once again brought us to a crisis with severe consequences. The question is whether we can overcome this system. Currently, five initiative groups have been registered.
In your opinion, how capable are we of making real changes? While the campaigning hasn’t started yet and the candidates’ programs are still unknown, it’s hard to judge — but we have historical precedent. Do you think there is an understanding that ruling in the old ways is no longer an option? Serious changes are needed.
“After Vladislav Ardzinba, the legitimacy of power gradually declined. Each subsequent president enjoyed less public support.”
Astamur Tania:
Unfortunately, over the past 20 years, a culture has developed in which people no longer appeal to national interests but act based on personal gain. They try to persuade people using corrupt schemes. After Vladislav Ardzinba, the legitimacy of power gradually declined. Each subsequent president enjoyed less public support. This is not only because the stage of the national liberation struggle had come to an end.
The problem lies in the fact that the political elite began to treat the people with disregard, believing that it was enough to buy transformers and build roads, that that would suffice. However, they failed to understand that this approach leads to the opposite effect — society, in turn, starts to treat the authorities with disrespect. As a result, with each new upheaval the government has fewer defenders than those who seek to overthrow it. In reality, public dissatisfaction and disappointment are growing.
People may not always be able to clearly articulate their attitude toward the authorities, but overall, disappointment is widespread — it applies to both past and present governments. I believe that unless the rules of the electoral process are changed and the government’s attitude toward the people is reconsidered, nothing will improve.
Bribery and blackmail must stop. It’s shameful. One can come to power through such methods, but legitimacy will remain weak, and the person in office will constantly have to balance between supporters and opponents.
Moreover, supporters are often worse than opponents because they expect personal benefits. Governing the country in such conditions is impossible. I don’t know if change is possible, but there is no other way. We are at a stage where enthusiasm is crucial. A small society responds quickly to signals, both negative and positive. That’s why clear goals are needed, along with an understanding of what you want and how to convey it to people.
We need to speak honestly with society. Otherwise, further moral degradation will occur, where laws will not rule, but those who are stronger and bolder will. If this continues, we won’t stay afloat for long. We ourselves will end up wanting external intervention to fix things.
Inal Khashig:
Is society ready?
Astamur Tania:
Yes, I am confident that if someone demonstrates sincerity, public talent, and consistency in achieving goals, they will be supported. The situation is difficult but not hopeless.
Inal Khashig:
I agree. Over the past two decades, the institution of the presidency in our country has changed significantly — and for the worse. Public perception of power today is that if someone seeks office, it’s for personal enrichment, not for serving the people. Everything is done on a residual principle — if something trickles down, that’s good.
Astamur Tania:
That’s in the best-case scenario, when personal interests coincidentally align with public interests.
Inal Khashig:
Yes, in that case, it’s even better. But currently, trust ratings for the entire political elite are extremely low. Even if all political organizations were to call for a mass rally, I doubt more than two thousand people would show up. I remember 2004 when opposing sides gathered massive crowds. Back then, there was still hope for a brighter future; now, everything feels too cynical.
There are plenty of words and promises, but no real reforms. We are a small republic, and everyone knows what is happening in power, who is stealing and who is not. Even if someone comes in with good intentions and starts working but doesn’t succeed, society will still see that their hands are clean. In such a case, trust will be high. However, if a person simply sits out their term, as usually happens here, nothing will change.
Right now, tensions are so high that people don’t want to wait another five years for this little act. We need people with clean hands and pure intentions. Perhaps they don’t yet know what the structure of the new government will look like, but society is ready to believe those who act honestly.
“Vladislav Ardzinba was an idealist in setting goals and a pragmatist in implementing them. Without idealism, nothing can be created. But a cynical approach to society doesn’t work.”
Astamur Tania:
This isn’t rocket science. We are not the first to build a state. If everything is done correctly, the result will be positive. If done the opposite way, the outcome will match. We have an example — Vladislav Ardzinba. He was an idealist in setting goals and a pragmatist in their implementation. Without idealism, nothing can be created. But a cynical approach to society doesn’t work. People need to be treated with respect and care; otherwise nothing will succeed. If you approach people with cynicism, you will conclude that nothing can be achieved.
At least among the registered candidates, there are no former presidents. There are also no people who worked in the Soviet party and law enforcement structures. This is already a positive factor. Furthermore, there are no generals among the candidates. The current challenge lies with civilian leaders who possess the knowledge and tools to solve problems.
A generational shift is taking place. The oldest candidate is just over 50 years old. These individuals were shaped under the conditions of an independent Abkhaz state, and they do not carry the Soviet burden. So governing the old way will not work.
The new government will not enjoy high ratings initially. If, within the first six months, a clear direction supported by society is not established, if people do not see that those in power are genuinely willing to invest their energy and health into changing the country, then failure is inevitable. We are currently in a state of bankruptcy, materially and spiritually.
People need to see that they have a future here — that they can live, raise children, and build their lives. Without this, none of the country’s problems, including the demographic issue, can be solved. No slogans can achieve this; only consistent work can. If within the first six months nothing bold, honest, and remarkable is demonstrated—if a team dedicated to the common good does not emerge—then once again, the issue of low government legitimacy will arise. After six months, such a government will no longer be able to solve any problems and will be engaged in the same activities as its predecessors. Whether it lasts for five years or not is uncertain.
Inal Khashig:
There are many problems, and one of them is the relationship with Russia. For the first time in many years, since 2004, Moscow has started sending certain signals about who they are backing in this presidential race. A context has emerged about allegedly anti-Russian forces in the Abkhaz political environment. This trend was started by the outgoing government led by Aslan Bzhaniya. Perhaps they were trying to hold on this way.
“Abkhaz people will always adhere to this alliance. But if, for example, there are threats to these basic values, naturally Abkhaz society will express discontent.”
“What is the point of this state if it cannot preserve the Abkhaz people, their culture, and language?”
Astamur Tania: When Bzhaniya realized he was losing public support, he tried to secure external backing by accusing someone of anti-Russian sentiments. But, honestly, I do not see a clear favorite of Moscow in this race. And there is little sense in this. Abkhaz people have always been a complex, rebellious people, but it is exactly such an ally you can rely on. If an ally is “plasticine” or amorphous, nothing good will come of it. It is better to have an ally who has his own position, his own “I,” and his own self-expression.
With such an ally, it is easier to build relationships. For Abkhazia, Russia is a guarantee of preserving the people and the state. Abkhaz people will always adhere to this alliance. But if, for example, there are threats to these basic values, naturally Abkhaz society will express discontent.
No one would want to end up in their homeland as service staff or something similar. Especially since we face serious problems. We are a small nation, and the question of our survival is acute. In fact, we are in a threatening state. For many years, key issues have not been resolved, despite the presence of laws and regulations. For example, we have a law on the state language, but it doesn’t really work. The Abkhaz language is on the brink of extinction. The essential things related to the existence of the state must be protected.
What is the purpose of this state if it is unable to preserve the Abkhaz people, its culture, and language? Without this, it loses all meaning. If the state does not protect these basic values, it becomes useless. We should not put the cart before the horse. The primary task is to preserve our nation, identity, and language, and to allow people to speak in Abkhaz. I am not talking about preserving archaic practices, but the point of speaking in Abkhaz should exist. However, these issues are systematically ignored by our government. Everything remains at the level of slogans and incantations.
Inal Khashig: So, returning to the topic of Russia…
“If Russia continues to play a leading role in the region and pursues an effective foreign policy, its positions will remain strong, regardless of who is in power in Abkhazia.”
Astamur Tania: I don’t see the point in betting on anyone specific, because no matter who comes to power, the situation will remain unchanged. Even if a CIA agent were to become president of Abkhazia, he still wouldn’t be able to solve issues related to security, the economy, or communications without Russia. He also wouldn’t ensure freedom of movement without a Russian passport. Our main trade turnover is with Russia, and it cannot be bypassed. These are the objective realities. You can’t make a penguin fly; it simply doesn’t align with its nature. It’s the same here: there’s no need to scare yourself with imaginary fears. If Russia continues to play a leading role in the region and pursues an effective foreign policy, its positions will remain strong, regardless of who is in power in Abkhazia.
Inal Khashig: But recently, especially in recent months, Russia’s dissatisfaction has been expressed quite clearly. There were statements about the possible rupture of relations, although perhaps it’s not worth examining who provoked this.
“If we do not achieve this, the process of disintegration will begin, and we will exist as a folklore ensemble.”
Astamur Tania: Yes, but the roots of this situation lie here because our political elite has created a completely incorrect understanding of our society. I hope that the future authorities will learn from this. We need to build an honest dialogue with Russia and define red lines. We want to preserve our state, control over our territory, and national resources. If we do not achieve this, the process of disintegration will begin, and everything will be reduced to the existence of a folklore ensemble. For a nation to develop, it is necessary to maintain control mechanisms over its territory and economy.
Inal Khashig: We will conclude on this note. I remind you that this is our last broadcast this year. See you next year. I wish everyone peace, goodness, and productive work for the benefit of family, state, and people. I hope everyone will be alive and healthy, and that we will think in the right direction. Astamur, would you like to add anything?
Astamur Tania: I second those wishes. We have both positive and negative examples. God willing, in the new year, we will be armed with good examples. There are many talented and intelligent people in Abkhazia, and it is a responsive society. I am confident that success can be achieved. I wish all of us success and well-being.
Inal Khashig: Our program can be watched on the ‘Chegemskaya Pravda’ channel, on our Facebook page, and on my Telegram channel ‘Inal Khashig. Chegemskaya Pravda.’ Happy New Year! Be healthy and happy. See you soon.
