Interview with Leonid Chamagua

This article was originally published on the “Echo of the Caucasus” website. The text and terminology of the article are reproduced unchanged. All rights belong to “Echo of the Caucasus.” Publication date: October 16, 2024.

On October 26, parliamentary elections will be held in Georgia. “Echo of Abkhazia” presents an interview with public figure and former parliament member Leonid Chamagua on the extent of Abkhazian politicians’ interest in the election results and how they might impact Abkhazia.

– Leonid, please tell us, are the elections in Georgia of interest to you? Are you following what’s happening? Do you think it matters for Abkhazia, and is it important to understand the situation there?

– I wouldn’t say that the elections in Georgia are of primary importance to me; it’s not among the key issues that interest me or Abkhazian society. However, it would be untrue to say that we have no interest at all in what’s happening next door. So, of course, we pay attention to statements by Georgian politicians regarding their views on the future relations between the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of Georgia.

– Could you point out something that has recently caught your attention?

– As you well understand, we’re hardly interested in what’s happening with the economic situation in Georgia, their internal affairs, or their legislative processes. But when it comes to Abkhazia, especially in an election period in Georgia, the most pressing issues that stir public sentiment tend to come to the forefront. Some statements regarding the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia are of particular interest.

– What specifically are you referring to? Please elaborate.

– Several Georgian politicians, including billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, have been speaking in various regions, saying that now is the time to apologize, to build bridges, that by 2030 the issue will be resolved, and that only a constitutional majority is needed for these independent states to end up as part of Georgia, and so on. In my opinion, this is a manipulation of voters and electoral possibilities ahead of the elections.

I believe that in Georgia, these matters are linked to an emotional component because for decades the idea that the Republic of Abkhazia is “historically Georgian land” has been ingrained in the minds of Georgian citizens. Such nonsense, if you’ll excuse the expression, is still common in Georgian society. In my view, it has no real basis, but it’s popular because Georgian society lives with illusions, with the hope of the so-called return of “historically Georgian lands.” I’m interested in understanding to what extent Georgian society has changed over the past 2-3 decades, or if it remains captive to its illusions.

Then, of course, there is the debate between representatives of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Georgian politicians. Sergey Lavrov made a statement regarding Abkhazia and South Ossetia, saying that if Georgians desire historical reconciliation and have a realistic view of past events, Russia is willing to facilitate dialogue, but these republics must decide their own future. For some reason, in Georgia this was interpreted as if Russia might retract its recognition. This led to statements that it was well-said, but now it’s time to start withdrawing military bases. It’s a tempest in a teapot and an attempt by Georgian politicians to mislead their society.

Ivanishvili is building in Georgia a model of power that suits him. In my opinion, this is a dictatorial model. For example, he says that all the other parties, referring to his opponents, should be shut down. It’s hard for me to imagine a country where a billionaire — who we all know couldn’t have earned billions honestly in the 1990s — effectively rules the country and decides how it will develop. For him opponents are a threat, and corresponding laws are being passed.

I see that in Russia, some people want to interpret this as a turn towards Russia. I want to disappoint these people — Georgia and Russia will not be able to reach an agreement. Georgia is not choosing a pro-Russian path; the Georgian dictator is choosing what suits his interests. Recently, I’ve been seeing what Georgian opposition figures are writing in Telegram channels, particularly concerning us, claiming that the upcoming US elections will bring Trump to power, and the road to the European Union will be open.

I don’t understand how the US elections will change the attitudes of EU leaders. It has become clear that even if America is willing to cooperate with Russia, European leaders and many representatives of European states are not ready for a warming of relations with Russia. I don’t think that if Trump wins, Europe will welcome Georgians with all their desires and demands, with a legal framework different from the European Union. So, there are many “buts” here. In the part related to the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this is of analytical interest to us.

– What do you think the outcome of the elections in Georgia will be? And how might it impact events in Abkhazia?

– I don’t follow the situation in Georgia closely, and it’s difficult for me to say what the ratings are there. Telegram channels mention a dozen parties. But I think Ivanishvili’s party has a good chance. We understand that voter bribery and the use of administrative resources are possible; all dictators try to stay in power, and we see this not only in Georgia. In this situation, it’s hard for me to say how events will unfold in the near future.

What will change if the opposition comes to power? We are told that they are a party of war, and they will start military actions tomorrow. Yes, they will escalate the situation, but I don’t think Georgia will attack Abkhazia. The Abkhaz will resolve these issues themselves, but if the collective West sides with Georgia, Russia will not be able to ignore it, because it will directly concern Russia itself.

In any case, the outcome for Georgia will be grim, so I do not seriously consider the situation where opposition groups get into to parliament tomorrow and open a second front. What will really happen is something entirely different: all trade and economic relations with Russia will be cut off. And that, probably, is undesirable for the Russian Federation.

By distancing itself from Europe, Ivanishvili’s party is not getting closer to Russia, as some Russian experts would like. It is actively cooperating with China and Turkey, forming new blocs that are not beneficial to Russia, because new bypass routes for the transit of oil products, gas, and other goods are being opened, bypassing Russia.

This does not mean that Georgia is moving closer to Russia; Georgia is currently behaving quite pragmatically, utilizing the economic opportunities related to the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation. In this case, the ascendance of openly and radically anti-Russian parties in parliament, if they gain a majority, will likely affect the economic situation in Russia, as many channels will be cut off. This will cause some damage to the Russian Federation, but this damage will not be critical.